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2.5% or so, these companies have figured out how to make money in a slow growth environment so combined with that, 4%, 5% earnings growth, that's reasonable in the kind of environment that we're in right now. >> no great shakes in terms of earnings growth. >> no. >> but good enough is what you're saying. >> that's right. i think it's good enough. >> what's priced into the market though? i mean, we've got expectations that we'll see much higher prof materialize or what? >> you know, really i think the market, you know, the p.e. ratio, if you look at valuations as far as that metric goes, i mean, the market is not willing to take the pes very high, may inch higher, 14, 14.5 or so, by the end of next year. the market knows we're in a slow growth environment. we're not going to get strong gdp, and it's not willing to assign much of a pe to these earnings. that's going to be a continuation, but next year i think investor confidence is going to improve a little. it's really lagged in this rally, so i think we're just going to be able to inch it up enough to where we have a decent yea
of discussion feels dead on arrival in this political environment where we can't get something like a basic budget done. >> the problem is we're going to have to do some of this, anyway. anyone who owns a home knows this. if you defer maintenance, if you say to yourself, my boiler is leaking but i'm not going to fix it, that's actually a penny wise, pound-foolish decision. it will eventually break and cost you three times as much. that's what's happening with our roads, bridges and highways. if you look at air travel. we have one of the world's most antiquated travel systems, we need to update the antiquated computer system. one day you're going to have terrible problems or you're going to have a kind of the system will break down, it's not going to cost $25 billion. it will cost $50 billion. >> there's another thing we don't talk about enough. we're talking about spending as if there's this generally irresponsible spending around. some of that might be true. the bigger issue is nilements, the growth in what those are going to cost us over time. that's the real threat. it's the one that is
. economic growth is far from robust. another big problem is the low interest rate environment. >> essentially the challenge is the spread between what they can pay for deposits and what they can earn on loans because of these very low interest rates is compressed. that makes earning money difficult. >> reporter: that said, some argue it's a good time to buy bank stocks because valuations are still relatively cheap. at 11.2, the financial sector has the lowest price to earnings ratio of any group, based on projected 2013 earnings. jim sinegal isn't impressed. >> there's good reason banks should trade at lower multiple than other sectors. there's a lot of risk there. a lot of leverage and banks aren't going to be as profitable going forward as they were in the past. >> reporter: investors will be watching friday for more hints about the health of the sector. that's when wells fargo will become the first of the big banks to release fourth quarter numbers. erika miller, "n.b.r.," new york. >> tom: still ahead, tonight's "word on the street," electronics. how semiconductor giant in
are two of his "ten predictions" for 2013. >> so the key, susie, is we're in an environment where stocks continue to climb walls of worry, and the economy continues to muddle through, not similar to last year. last year the economy some days okay, some days not so okay, and the stock market kept climbing that wall of worry. last year stocks were up 16%, s&p 500, and we only need about half that to achieve a new all-time high. i think we'll get there. >> susie: bob, how do markets go higher when the individual investor is out of the picture, so fearful of investing in stocks. do we see the return of the individual this year? >> i wish i could say we're going to see that, susie. but the individuals who own a lot of bonds first need to see bonds going down in price to be willing to sell them to buy stocks. i think we hit a new all-time high without much participation by the individual. it is the corporation itself that has the big burially since the become oof 09. >> susie: you believe the emerging markets are going to do better than the u.s. so should investors focus outside the u.s.? >> i
'neill at 9:00 tonight and signed the final agreement. we don't have that environment anymore. maybe that is good for the sunshine law but with intense media scrutiny and day-to-day negotiations it is tougher to get the deal done. i would like for them to go to camp david for one week. lori: with a chance to get spending cuts? will republicans have any leverage? >> there is opportunity to have responsible conversation. lori: that anything done? >> it is possible. the budget that was criticized the president has proposed drastic spending cuts and froze discretionary spending over five years not what democrats would be happy about what would follow if there was a deal. it is maybe a little less likely than one year ago but it is possible. lori: meno bernanke will leave at the end of the term. how will that unfolds? >> now -- now they say tim geithner will go to the head of the federal reserve. [laughter] i think he has had his do but it is a close relationship. it is with the entire board and not just the chairman. on lot of people have known them for a long time. lori: who will handic
are two of his "ten predictions" for 2013. >> so the key, susie is we're in an environment where stocks continue to climb walls of worry, and the economy continues to muddle through, not similar to last year. last year the economy some days okay some days not so okay, and the stock market kept climbing that wall of worry. last year stocks were up 16%, s&p 500, and we only need about half that to achieve a new all-time high. i think we'll get there. >> susie: bob how do markets go higher when the individual investor is out of the picture so fearful of investing in stocks. do we see the return of the individual this year? >> i wish i could say we're going to see that susie. but the individuals who own a lot of bonds first need to see bonds going down in price to be willing to sell them to buy stocks. i think we hit a new all-time high without much participation by the individual. it is the corporation itself that has the big burially since the become ofof 09. >> susie: you believe the emerging markets are going to do better than the u.s. so should investors focus outside the u.s.? >> i th
jointly. >> precisely. >> that kind of discussion feels dead on arrival in this political environment where we can't even get a budget done. >> and the problem is we're going to have to do some of this anyway. anyone who owns a home knows this. if you differ maintenance, my boiler is leaking but i'm not going to fix it, that's penny-wise but pound pool foolish. the whole thing will break and cost you three times the amount. air travel. we have one of the world's most antiquated air traffic systems. we need to update the computers. it's $25 billion. we're not spending that money because as you say spending is is a dirty word. but one day you're going to have terrible problems or you're going to have -- the system will break down. then it's not going to cost $25 billion. it will cost $50 billion. >> another thing we don't talk about enough. we're talking about spending as if there's this generally irresponsible spending. the bigger issue is entitlements, the growth in what those are going to cost us over time. that's the real threat, the one hardest to deal with because it's stuff peopl
environment so attractive and really few alternatives. is it really a function of the global economy, or is it more a function of this money that needs to find a place to go and u.s. equities seems to be best looking game in town? >> well, you know, i do think it's a lill bit of the latter. when you start looking at the velocity of the money, not trying to get too into the financial jargon, but we do have an issue where people are still seeking out safe money. however, if you look at growth of bank lending, commercial bank lending, what we call a credit growth, it's above 6% right now, so we do have banking and financial organizations wanting to lend money, and as they do that, that's going to create the capital to give those fundamentals that we sort of have forgotten about, but there's no denying that when the federal reserve is printing 85 billion a month it will have an effect. keep in mind, still looking at 8%, 10%, s&p corporate earnings growth. let's not get into an argument about top line growth. >> you're talking about the fourth quarter, 8% to 10% in the fourth quarter? >>
to be in this environment? what kind of year do you expect it to be? >> we don't have price on the dow, but we continue to look at more domestic-facing companies and industries, so consumer finance are big parts of both portfolios. we think housing continues to improve, consumer continues to delever, monetary policy remains supportive, so stock-pickers, we own redwood trust, which is a mortgage reit investment jumbo. we own carmax. they invented the used car superstore, lots of growth left there. and then a final stock would be ko colfax, which we do a great job as the vascular system for the global economy. they build large fluid systems for petrochemical companies, energy companies, as the economy comes in, as industrial production comes back, they're well positioned. so, we're pretty constructive on the asset class, particularly because a lot of people don't seem to be all that constructive on the asset class. >> steve sax, what about you? where are you seeing the flow? what are investors particularly grav stating towards these days? >> it's till equities and all of last year, credential the first c
to be an economic and political environment. that's going to be the story for 2013. >> we get a lot of people who come in who it seems to me lately there's a big divergence. there are those who are optimistic about things and think things will go well. others that say, forget it, we've seen all the gains. which camp would you put yourself in? >> i guess i'm not wholistically in either camp. it's more an optimist than a pessimist. we've seen stock correlations begin to fall a little bit. that's encouraging. it says that investors are begin to go loor fop companies that figure out how to make money in a slow growth environment. not sure what the indices will do, but i think the companies that are positioned to save other people company. i was thinking about the people who sell cnbc their coffee cups. you don't do that. somebody has figured out how to do that on large scale and make a lot of money doing it. so those kinds of companies we're going to look for. that means selectivity. that means looking in place that's we don't like from a mook row point of view such as europe. >> but from the average
in the ecosystem. >> basically it's come to this. the environment where these pythons now live is not used to them. these creatures have evolved from places like the rainforest in southeast asia or the african savannah, and the habitat or the grassland habitat that you find in the everglades just simply is not equipped to deal with these very new and very invasive species. basically these pythons are invaders, and they are eating everything they come in contact with. >> you say these very new, are these pythons that were people's pets? >> likely that's how all of this originated. pot past 30 years people have been importing these snakes. a lot less lately. but during the 1970s and 1980s thousands and thousands of these snakes were brought in from asia and africa, and more often than not they either escaped because of hurricanes or people released them into environments where they shouldn't have, and these animals took over. they started out as pets, and then through negligence were released and, unfortunately, this ecosystem just really is not prepared to take on what these snakes do to the enviro
it's had a tremendous year in production, but the political and security environment there remains very challenging. dagen: any other countries, saudi arabia, even the united states with its increasing production here that can make up any loss that we might see in iraq, like is there any cushion anywhere else in the world? >> well, you know, when you look at, you know, where we can see potentially within opec, the saudis are the ones who have their capacity. it becomes an interesting what the saudis will do in terms if we did see losses coming out of iraq. right now we've seen iraqi exports down 10% in december but have not seen a major attack on a facility. for now i think everyone is in sort of wait and see mode. another country you want to watch though is libya. libyan production has been another country that has allowed us to absorb the loss of iranian exports. you do want to watch, do we see any potential problems in libya? that's a country where the security situation does not remain very stable. dagen: thank you. >> thank you for having me. happy new year. connell: let's mov
. they're expensive. we're in a very cost sensitive environment still. people are losing their jobs. not just this year, all around the globe. they're saying i will not pony up, 1500 bucks, 800 bucks get it with bells and whistles you're talking about $1,000. they're not willing to do it. they haven't seen the offerings to --. lori: you could use your tablet or smartphone. >> exactly. that costs a lot less. you can buy a cheap google tablet for 199 bucks. lori: stick around we want to get your reaction to our next story here. >> great. melissa: that big company in the world, has its sights set on china. apple's tim cook says he expects to take over china as the second biggest market. company says sales in china more than doubled in 2010 and dwef ven. apple's biggest challenge in china is the smartphone market which is currently dominated by google's android system. when do you think china overtakes the u.s.? do you that is near term? does he think, next five years or is that like a 20 years? >> i don't think so. three to five years it will happen. there are still so many people who
interest rate environment, the weak dollar environment will come back and boost these battles. silver has lost even more momentum. start to look at these battles. after the debt talks are over, he thinks that everyone will go back. connell: listening to you very closely today. you got the alabama game right last night. didn't you pick alabama? sandra: i did. connell: sandra smith. thank you. dagen: and then you have a quarterback who dated a girl who went to auburn. it is a little past quarter past the hour. nicole: we are seeing at&t as one of the big laggards. at&t told more than 7 million smart phones in the fourth quarter. this is a record for them. obviously copying the prior numbers that we have seen. these telecom type companies are coming under pressure. here is a look at the broader market averages. the dow jones industrials down about 80 points right now. back to you. dagen: thank you. connell: we will talk to bret baier coming up. dagen: alabama's big moment in the spotlight. oh, the people came running on twitter. connell: joining us from vegas is nick cannon. a lot coming up.
. they're trying to get a new stadium and they want public funding and this in tax environment, they say the only way to really enhance your value is to leverage this kind of victory if they won the super bowl to get a new stadium, and they're right on the cusp of it. they're having that conversation with it. and they're the only team left that haven't won it. and then you have ray lewis, who was, you know, charged with murder 12 years ago. >> right. >> and now he's like the beacon of respect in the nfl. >> it's -- for me it's hard to get past my preconceived notions. i don't think the ravens belong, i hate to say that, where, you know, i think they're going to have a hard time getting past new england. and i also think atlanta's going to have a hard time getting past san francisco, don't you? >> i think the san francisco, in many ways -- >> did you watch that? >> yeah. they are good. it's funny, they say colin kaepernick and rg three are transforming the game of football. at 180 plus yards rushing. how can you do that for ten years? >> and then i think new england's defense trying to st
an environment of better economic growth. rates might go higher. we think the immediate part of the curve is probably the safest place for the investors who are looking or think rates might be going up. then the other is you need to play the revenue space. there's a lot of high quality credits out there. but the yields are low. you're not really getting compensated. from a risk reward perspective, like health care and transportation, like housing and education offer a lot of value with not a lot of risk. >> so tell me how the fed plays into all of this, peter. there was all that noise last week about the division among fed members on how long the stimulus program should continue or will continue. if rates stay low and they don't fall any further, what's the impact of the growth in the muni bond market? how does that play into it? >> that's a great question. that's one we're talking about here as well. i think it's important to realize that the fed was only beginning to talk about having a debate or a discussion about removing that qe. so they've been anchoring on the long end of the marke
market sounds like a bull compared to that sort of an environment. >> let's talk about what harry just said though because he talked about the large umbrella-type situations that are really going to impact. demographics. >> yeah. >> the fact that the retail investor is gone. we're not going to have the same level of interest in stocks over the long term. he's expecting a big crash second half of the year. >> yeah. he's absolutely right. we've had bun buyer since 666 on the s&p in '09, the corporation itself. nobody else is in this buyer. can you imagine if somebody else does show up for a day or two? we could have a much better market. >> what's going to take us to those all-time highs, what area of the market do you want to be in to ride that wave? >> the multi-nationals. lagged the last couple of years. emerging market economies starting to do a bit better, and those companies that are geared in that direction. look, some of the u.s. companies will do fine, too. earnings are a question mark. that's -- that's part of the problem, but i think as financial and systemic risk mitigate som
much money. the deposit growth here is unbelievable. but in this environment, people want net interest margin. they want the bank to make more money or more mortgages. >> some banks out there, just declined only six basis points. that's how optimistic some on wall street will be going into this quarter. the sequential decline, it's 3.56 for the fourth quarter from 3.66 in the third. as you mentioned, ten-base point decline. so that picture has been dimming a bit. total lending has increased. >> not enough to offset the incredible increase in the deposits. what did they take in over -- >> $30 billion in the quarter. >> 12% annualized. even with that rescinding of the insurance beyond 250,000, still deposit flows. yet you can't put it into productive loans or you don't want to because you worry about credit quality and we end up with contracting energy -- >> look, we're at a moment where i don't think anybody who's got a mortgage, they know they're getting a good price. the ohio regionals are going to do better. that welgs is now a sale. look, wells could go to 33. if it had been to 32,
environment. if the yield curve starts to stephen as we've seen in the -- to stephen as we've seen in the first weeks of 2013, that will eliminate net interest margin pressure. profitability should improve for the group. >> how much do you care about what's going on in washington over the next two months? >> i think that's important because the austerity measures being talked about in washington will slow general economic growth in the country. and as you know, that's a real driver for bank loan growth. and so if those austerity measures are too much and puts us into possibly a recession or just slower growth, that will affect the outlook for the banks. i think you're going to see that the housing market's going to continue to grow. and that's going to be a real driver to the success of the banks this year. >> okay. now in your note to clients, you say that your four best ideas -- i'll list them. walk us through why you like them. you like discover financial services, fifth third bancorp, pnc financial, and wells fargo. >> yes, when you hook at starting with the last one, wells far
into recession. it's been in a recession type environment for a while. and the only grimace of hope is that the chinese economy has been showing signs of growth and the japanese are earmarking trying to get their growth profile. it's a race to the bottom. last year, there was a lot of risk that people thought we were going to have and didn't happen and then this year, thought there would be a massive allocation out of equities. i think that shows the first quarter is not going to be a one shot off the the risk markets. >> george, thanks for joining us this morning. we appreciate that. and now let's just remind you what else is still to come. two of the biggest names in hedge funds are locking horns over herbalife. we'll tell you what you need to know, coming up. with hotwire's low prices, we can afford to take an extra trip this year. first boston... then san francisco. hotwire checks the competitions' rates every day so they can guarantee their low prices. so our hotels were half price. ♪ h-o-t-w-i-r-e... ♪ hotwire.com ♪ [ male announcer ] some day, your life will flash befor
with dividends in a zero interest rate environment. cheryl: forget bonds and other alternative investments, stocks really are the only option at this point? >> well, it's got to be a part of the portfolio. cheryl: a bigger piece? >> yeah, a bigger piece. have some cash with scares and shocks along the way. at some point, if the economy does continue to grow, people worry about when is the fed going to take the punch bowl away, and that worries people. you have a risk of something happening in europe, the middle east is a mess, and so there's a lot of reasons to have a little bit of cash, but if you have a return, an absolute return in the environment, large cap multinationals have to be a part of it. cheryl: thank you very much. good to see you. >> thank you. cheryl: well, the next fight between congress and president obama will be over two controversial cabinet selections coming down in an hour from now. rich edson joining me from inside the beltway with the latest on the two picks from the president. rich? >> well, cheryl, the headline here, according to white house officials, senator ch
well in the current environment. you can't survive in this industry unless you continue to cut costs. we've got a great track record, frankly, over the last five years of delivering, you know, circa 100 million pounds of cost savings year on year. we intend to do that going forward. >> and joining us with more, founder and managing director at neeve capital. thanks for joining us. how tough is if for the gross? tough for morrison's. we get tesco tomorrow. >> i think it is tough and goes beyond the economy. i think what's happened is to some extent people are prioritizing spending on other things over food. you've seen so much food inflation the last two, three years that people almost prefer to spend it on treat like apple, for example, or clothing. what that actually has meant is people are discovering or rediscovering that it's cool enough to shop, and people have discovered you can get good quality stuff at really much cheaper prices. and i think in other terms, what people are doing is they're shopping on convenience. they want to go? where closer to them. they don't actually lik
talk about just the overall economic environment. they say there were a lot of challenges that the industry faced during the last year, including continued low interest rates and elevated unemployment. though, they're not necessarily saying great things about what they see in the economy or at least what they had seen over the last year. only comes in one take at a time. >> where, let me see? >> keep going. >> mine does. >> mine over here. >> i got to go pop out into the next thing during the next thing. >> no. wells forgo at this point 34.99 bid. so no longer actually trading higher on this. i don't know what the metric that came out, but two cents ahead on better than expected write now. >> all right. >> okay. >> talk to an analyst. >> we're going to talk to an analyst and get him on the phone. let's get a quick check on the markets. the dow falling -- would open about 12 points lower. nasdaq off by two points. s&p 500 virtually unchanged. overseas in asia, as we do a quick fly around you can see we do have a little bit of bad news. shanghai composite off close to 2% on
it is that they have no intention of doing, anyway. basically, we live in an environment where things are going to continue to change and businesses are going to feel money if they feel there's an end demand that justifies that. there's end demand in china, end demand globally and moderate end demand in the u.s. the reality is businesses have done relatively well for the last two or three years and will continue to. >> real quickly, herbalife later this week will be making a big presentation trying to defend itself from bill ackmann. your thoughts? >> look, i happen to feel that waging your short selling campaign on the air waves a way of dictating stock price, i am personally uncomfortable with. i think it's the wrong way to go about investing because it raises all these questions of are you making a legitimate analysis of the underlying business of the company or are you trying to shift the momentum in order to make money off the stock direction? >> you don't think that bill ackmann is going out, and then selling without us knowing? >> no, i don't believe that. i just don't think that's the
to a normal environment i think. cheryl: really good point. watching the pendulum swing all the way over to the wrong side for investors. >> america's banks have capital. that's how we got through the crisis so well. industry paid for everything other than citi group. that's the only major bank. cheryl: thank you very much, interesting points today. >> thank you. cheryl: closing bell will ring, and we now have got 48 minutes to go on the monday. athena health in the palm of your hand. the company's going mobile taking information on patients, doctors, and providers to another level. it's really interesting. athena health president and ceo talking about how that translates into future profits for the company, and the prognosis for athena health for 20 # 13. that's coming up next, but as we break, look at thena's stock over the past year. it's a nice chart. we'll be right back. ♪ look, if you have copd like me, you know it can be hard to breathe, and how that feels. copd includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema. spiriva helps control my copd symptoms by keeping my airways open for 24 ho
, will that maybe prevent you from being more bullish in this environment because there is still so much uncertainty? >> you know what? i think politicians are starting to realize they can't play this jousting match they have been having with the last debt ceiling, the fiscal cliff which is behind us temporarily. so i think when they come to the table with a solution, the markets are going to rally just like they have in the past. i think they're going to come up with a solution but until there is a solution, until there is something, i think we'll see some volatility. but i really think they will come to the table with a good, solid solution. it will give republicans a chance to put their foot down on some of these, on some of this public spending. and it is going to be positive for the investor. ashley: bob, let me finish with you. you like emerging markets. people say that a but which market in particular are you particularly hot on right now? >> well, actually we think china is poised to begin growing faster than expected again. pmis came out last month and they're above 50 again and i think the
of opportunity in the community banks at this moment. a very tough operating environment with net interest margin low side and saw the other mortgaged-related issues and regulatory scrutiny that as been promulgated. but with the mn t, particular attention to it. it could be another dollar of earnings potential factored into those shares of the course of 2013. pay particular attention. liz: thank you so much. he lives and breathes the stuff. the closing bell ringing in seven tents. we crossed the flat line. all green on the screen. is this the end of the pc era? to the first time in five years, they sales fell and two names attacking the heat. with stocks after the break. ♪ what are you doing? nothing. are you stling our daughter's school supplies and taking them to work? no, i was just looking for my stapler and my... this thing. i save money by using fedex ground and buy my own supplies. that's a great idea. i'm going to go... we got clients in today. [ male announcer ] save on ground shipping at fedex office. ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second sta
, that is it, and not only that, that shell gas production is cleaning the environment because we use more natural gas, using less coal, that means less greenhouse e mageses, and they are musing less emissions than they have in many years. great news today. >> wow, thank you so much. great report. >> thank you. >> okay, switching gears here to talk about the housing market. six years after the bubble burst, the consumer protection bureau set to outline a new set of home loan rules, but will the guidelines make the mortgage process transparent or add to confusion? asking someone who has a wealth of experience in the mortgage industry, bill emerson. great to have you with us. >> great to be here, lori. lori: what a year quicken had. $70 billion in loans closed versus the prior here and record of $30 billion. that is tremendous growth. why were conditions and even confidence among home buyers so improved in that time? >> well, i think there's a variety of reasons for that. number one, rates were low. that's helpful. number two, market participants shifted focus on what they wanted to do for m
. it will focus on the low interest rate environment and we'll see a pop in these commodities again. is that your play? >> gold is special. i think, don't think of gold as a commodity. think of it as a currency. i think that is what the world's fourth or fifth currency, it will gain more popularity. everyone wants to deflate their currency. other commodities we need a stronger economy. could be second half play. could be somewhere out next year. i'm, i'm the equity strategist. i don't claim to be an expert on this. there is value there. we'll start with oil. i think gold is different. other commodities will come along later on. ashley: scott is the race to debase across the world really and it has been going on for some time. gold has not really responded in the rate you think it would. what do you, what is your thought on gold and where it goes from here? >> we're in really not that interested in gold right now. ashley: no? >> i think it's going to pretty much flat line from here and it's just something that moves in the rest of the year along with any political moves. same way we're cautiously
we like wells fargo a lot. they get hurt in a low rate environment, they'll be helped a tremendous amount when short rates move up, and investors have not yet been willing to believe that the mortgage profits are sustainable. even though wells has got 30% market share of the mortgage market, which over time should be a positive. it's just they're not willing to give them full credit for it yet. >> moshe, thanks for your time. >> thanks very much. >> i did want to discuss some breaking news on morgan stanley. the company, a number of news outlets reporting job cuts coming there. we can confirm and clarify some of those reports. morgan stanley sources close to the company indicating they will cut about 6% of its overall institutional securities, and infrastructure staff. those cuts will total 1,600 jobs, half would be international, half will be domestic. again, 6% of securities and infrastructure. now, putting that in perspective, the company has 57,000 total employees. some have reported 6% overall, that is not correct. again, if you do the math, it would be 1,600 total. they've be
. that's the bleed air. and that bleed air usually does everything from controlling the environment within the cabin, the heating and the cooling, onboard electronics. what makes the dreamliner so different, so unique, is the amount of innovation that's gone in to using these lithium ion batteries in order to run the electronics on the plane. well, part of the problem here is, you're taking an amount of electricity that is coming off of these generators, in a very confined and small space, andrew, i mean this would be different if you were in the middle of a power plant. you'd say no problem. companies do this all the time. now you're trying to do this inside of an airplane. we should point out, this has gone through certification at the faa, repeated testing. it's not like they're just throwing these planes up there and there hasn't been any kind of safety checks. they went through extensive tests. if the issue now is was there, and this is something i think we're going to hear about in the next couple of days, is there a specific, perhaps malfunction with some of the electronics a
the risk. >> you manage risk. that's what you have to do particularly in today's environment where there is a fair amount of risk. let me ask you before we get into this dwe bait. how are you managing risk right now? how are you allocating capital? >> we're global managers so we have a broad spectrum where we can go now. we think overseas is advantageous rather than being in the u.s. close to the highs. yet the economy is -- the real economy is trading somewhat off its highs. if you look at europe, for example, where the headlines have been negative. the news flow has been awful. performance has been awful as well. so the market in europe has more reflected the performance of the real economy than it has here in the u.s. the fed qe program, the safe haven of the u.s. has caused money to flow to this part of the world. i think that leaves the u.s. a little pricier and perhaps more of a risk. >> it takes courage to fight the fed, though, right? >> absolutely. but ultimately and jack said it, fundamentals do matter. i think the market will reflect those. >> i heard active management d
year for the s&p. it'll get you to 1,550? >> we are in a mid single digit equities environment. it's not horrible as long as you're not expecting something that's, you know, that's 10%. >> look at some of these releases. i'm very impressed with the isms for services. very impressed with capital goods, factory order spending, factories isms, even the employment report showed good hours worked in income. are we underestimating the economy? forget washington, put that aside. >> are you underestimating the economy? it'll be 3% instead of 2%? >> it could be. let's put it this way. if you look, for example, at the cbo budget numbers, they are looking for this thing to get to 3%, 4%, 5%, over the next two or three years, i think those are silly numbers. could we be in the high twos? not without a question. especially if you can unlock this lack of business confidence that's out there, that to me is the most important. >> i love the fact that gold is falling almost on a daily basis. because when gold falls, people are investing in more productive assets. reminds me of the '80s and '90s. >>
in this environment. they were supposed to be gamestop's salvation, instead down more than 15%. can you believe that? that seems like maybe management is -- they're not ready for this. maybe they don't have as good of a handle on things as they think. plus the new video game consoles that bulls are excited about do get released, they might include technology that makes it so only the original user could play that game. that would be something, right? beyond the ailing used game business, gamestop plans to grow the digital business, selling games over the internet, dramatically over the next couple of years. but, i don't see how they compete against more established online players. fact is, gamestop has to compete with amazon on way too many fronts. they sell the same gaming hardware and software, does digital down loads too, letting you buy and download games online, amazon's on fire here and they do it really well. and amazon makes it easy to find and buy used video games by connecting you with vendors and individuals all over the world who want to sell. you don't want to be in competition with ama
and get some of the issues out of the way. >> we've lived in this environment for the last 18 months, one big disaster after another. everyone is waiting for the policy response, comes at the 11th hour and 59th minute. this is a pattern everyone has gotten used to but the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling are the last big tail risks we think of the tail risks that we have to worry about, saw we would say once we get past that over the next several months we think it will lift a little bit of a cloud and investors will take risks. >> good to see you. >> good to see you. >> thanks so much for joining us. >> bob, thanks to you as well. ten minutes to go before we close it up. the dow jones industrial average holding on to a gain of 50 points. >> well, this herbalife soap opera is continuing. herb greenberg is coming up. all over the big move in the stock. take a look. up 3.25% right now. we'll show you what's behind it. >> and can you believe the iphone was only introduced five years ago? it is true. five years ago today, in fact, so here's a trivia question for you. the iphone alone is wort
normal, if you will, in a lot of these companies given the fact that the regulatory environment is getting worse and globalization is not necessarily on their side where it was so many years ago? is this going to be the new normal? well, i don't think so. here's the question. will the politicians get it right? will we go over the cliff, another debt ceiling and if we don't we could have a very robust capital markets this year, an that's what encourages me for the big money centers. for the smaller guys starved for loan growth and margin pressures they will be buyers. the really small guys will be the sellers and you'll see a lot of m & a opportunity out here. >> jason this morning you raised estimates on three banks. you lowered estimates on nine banks. tell me what was behind that. you're expecting the quarter to be what, more negative than positive for the sector overall? how do you see it? >> fine tuning here and there with overall estimate. i think generally for the earnings for the quarter. we think about half our banks will beat expectations. half miss. if you think during
are actually behind the counter in dispensaries, and so it's a very safe, secure, highly regulated environment that we operate in. >> okay. so 18 states have now passed medical marijuana laws. 18 states, so you -- you operate -- you operate already in california. you operate in canada. you've got dispensers coming to market in arizona in a matter of weeks. >> correct. >> what when are you likely to break into the remaining states? what's the plan for growth? >> that's a very good question because we are not just about medical marijuana. our technology crosses many boundaries in the traditional pharmacy retailing business, whether it's retail pharmacies, institutional pharmacy plays, doctor offices, hospice, long-term care, so our solution really is very broad scope and has a tremendous value proposition in traditional pharmacy and in traditional health care. in terms of medical marijuana we are on a state-by-state awareness, put if in aware ney. every state sen acting its own laws and regulations so we're currently enacting the rules in recently passed state like connecticut and massachusetts.
's there on the sidelines, and yet this market keeps going higher because of this interest rate environment, because of the easy money from central bankers. do you still see that kind of conviction on -- on the part of big buyers? >> yes, i do, and i think as we said, the global p myois telling you that we're coming from a dismal place. if you bag back to the fiscal collapse that we went through worldwide, particularly i look to china, for the impact that china continues to have on the global economy. the united states is again demonstrating, may not be the growth rate that we want, but it is in fact heading in the right direction which is why the asset class of exsis should come back into favor. we've been out of favor for years at this point. the weekly money flows we just saw, the first time we've seen positive growth. >> exactly. >> i think that money has been spent quite frankly so that's a tough trade, but at this particular point market has digested what it's going to digest. put in a great first two weeks of january, and i believe the money flows should and will continue into the united stat
's session. nokia on strong surge sales. the company did warn that competitive environment though remains challenging. molly corp plummeting after 2013 revenue and case flows would be weaker than expected due to falling rare earth prices. and super value, which has been in the news lately, says it plans to sell five retail grocery clans to an investor group. the price tag, $3.3 billion. as we continue on power lunch we are waiting for president obama to set to name the white house chief of staff jack lew as new treasury chief. but there are a number of people, including some on the floor, who are afraid of mr. lew, heading up treasury. we will talk about that when we come back as you look at this live picture from the white house. i've always had to keep my eye on her... but, i didn't always watch out for myself. with so much noise about health care... i tuned it all out. with unitedhealthcare, i get information that matters... my individual health profile. not random statistics. they even reward me for addressing my health risks. so i'm doing fine... but she's still going to give me a he
risk than upside. but clearly, munis, especially in the increased tax environment, still attractive as are some high-yield, some floating rate including some private debt alternative investments to provide some current yield while we continue to sort of muddle along during this first quarter or so in the volatility. hover orr all right, jack, i know you have a lot of etf picks which you often share with us. what is your investment philosophy, strategy in terms of specifics right now? >> sure. i can't disagree with david. i think a lot of those themes, you know, pretty much filter through to what we're doing. but we do think that the emerging markets, you know, trading at a 25% discount to the s&p 500 offer a little bit of insulation in the event that we start our austerity program this year, europe continues their austerity program. yes, there is a little stimulus in japan, but overall i would like to invest in an economy that has, you know, a 6% overnight interest rate that can go lower if they need to. they're running budget surpluses, they've got currency reserves, they can throw
rate environment is very tough for them. you want to be cautious going into earnings. sandra: i told everybody you would be naming names. stock your portfolios with what you suggest here. you're calling for three of the 11 regional names to beat expectations. which three? >> well that would be mtb u.s. bank and fifth third and we think they are all in a position because of their mix of earnings, a lot of fee income because of merger in the case of mtb. those are ones where you could see them buck this trend of overall pressure on earnings. we think those are the places to be and they're high quality names. sandra: i want to tell everybody, m & t reporting this week on wednesday, fifth third is reporting on thursday. those are where you're calling for beats. six of them you are predicting of regional banks will miss expectations which six? >> we have a number of them. in fact it will be more than six. it will be across the board. we look at a keycorp and pnc, some of the other names where the net interest margin pressure because of a flat curve, much like wells fargo, even if they mak
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